Valuation
5 scenarios, 5 with an implied value. Every figure here is a modelled assumption and none of it is an opinion of value.
Weighted expected value
Modeled$26.7M$1.7M above the $25M target$3.3M below stretch
Downside $2.1MBase $8.8MTarget $8.2MStrategic $6MCompetitive auction $1.6M
Downside — single reluctant bidder
Two strategics drop out; Lakeshore transacts at the bottom of its range with a retention covenant.
10%Modeled
$20.7M3.40× ARR49.38× EBITDAvia ARR
Assumptions
- ARR (trailing)$6.1M
- ARR multiple3.40×
- EBITDA (TTM)$420,000
- EBITDA multiple (cross-check)49.00×
- NRR at close112.0%
Base — one written IOI converts
One of the two IOIs converts to an LOI on roughly its current terms.
35%Modeled
$25M4.10× ARR59.55× EBITDAvia ARR
Assumptions
- ARR (trailing)$6.1M
- ARR multiple4.10×
- EBITDA (TTM)$420,000
- EBITDA multiple (cross-check)60.00×
- NRR at close117.0%
Target — LOI at or above $27.5M
Arcadia's IOI holds and the earnout is largely converted to cash on the LOI call.
30%Modeled
$27.4M4.50× ARR65.36× EBITDAvia ARR
Assumptions
- ARR (trailing)$6.1M
- ARR multiple4.50×
- EBITDA (TTM)$420,000
- EBITDA multiple (cross-check)65.00×
- Enterprise dealer groups signed9.00
Strategic — Vantage pays for the roadmap
Vantage values the asset on what it unlocks across 9,000 rooftops rather than on our ARR.
20%Modeled
$29.9M4.90× ARRvia ARR
Assumptions
- ARR (trailing)$6.1M
- ARR multiple4.90×
- Rooftops attachable inside Vantage9,000.00
Competitive auction — Arcadia vs Vantage
Both strategics bid into the LOI round with Solstice as a structural alternative.
5%Modeled
$32.3M5.30× ARRvia ARR
Assumptions
- ARR (trailing)$6.1M
- ARR multiple5.30×
- Live bidders at LOI3.00