Approvals

Material changes proposed by meeting debriefs and research runs. Nothing here has been applied — a buyer score, tier, probability or modelled value only moves when a human decides here.

Awaiting a decision

HIGHVerifiedInitiative priorityVantage Retail Cloudfrom Research Job · Sep 3, 2026
Previoushigh→Proposedcritical
Reason: SOC 2 Type II is now a closing condition in a written IOI.
Evidence: Vantage IOI, closing conditions.
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HIGHHighTransaction probabilityKestrel Dealer Systemsfrom Research Delta · Sep 7, 2026
Previous30→Proposed10
Reason: Kestrel is hiring a team to build what they would otherwise buy.
Evidence: Three ML engineering postings scoped to consumer acquisition.
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HIGHHighBuyer scoreSolstice Equity Partnersfrom Research Delta · Aug 28, 2026
Previous70→Proposed85
Reason: A newly closed fund with a stated thesis and no platform asset.
Evidence: Fund IV press release; trade coverage of themes.
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HIGHMediumTransaction probabilityVantage Retail Cloudfrom Research Delta · Sep 5, 2026
Previous65→Proposed60
Reason: A new Chief AI Officer with a build background is a risk to the buy decision until engaged.
Evidence: Vantage press release; CAIO's prior role built an in-house ML platform.
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MEDIUMVerifiedBuyer tierGreyfen Partnersfrom Research Delta · Aug 11, 2026
Previouswatch_list→Proposedtier_3
Reason: Greyfen now owns a dealer-software platform and has said it will add to it.
Evidence: DealerFlow acquisition press release.
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MEDIUMMediumContact authorityDaniel Okaforfrom Research Job · Sep 1, 2026
Previoushigh→Proposedfinal_approver
Reason: Okafor has led all four technology acquisitions and the podcast interview describes board delegation to him below $50M.
Evidence: Official bio; podcast interview at 31:40.
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MEDIUMMediumPotential valueLakeshore Commercefrom Research Delta · Aug 8, 2026
Previous27000000→Proposed24000000
Reason: The verbal range tops out at $24M and the CFO's public discipline language caps it.
Evidence: Range call; Q2 earnings transcript.
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MEDIUMMediumNew initiativeArcadia Auctionsfrom Research Delta · Aug 1, 2026
Previous—→ProposedNew initiative: paired-model demonstration
Reason: Northgate's condition-capture model plus seller qualification is a synergy Arcadia has not modelled. A working demonstration would make it concrete before the LOI.
Evidence: Northgate acquisition; Raman's integration memo.
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Recently decided

ApprovedBuyer score· Meridian Automotive Group10 → 60
The company Founder · Sep 6, 2026 · applied · Approved from the meeting debrief.
ApprovedBuyer score· Vantage Retail Cloud55 → 80
The company Founder · Sep 3, 2026 · applied · Approved from the meeting debrief.
ApprovedTransaction probability· Vantage Retail Cloud48 → 65
The company Founder · Sep 3, 2026 · applied · Approved from the meeting debrief.
ApprovedBuyer score· Solstice Equity Partners20 → 40
The company Founder · Sep 2, 2026 · applied · Approved from the meeting debrief.
ApprovedBuyer score· Brightpath Auto10 → 45
The company Founder · Aug 31, 2026 · applied · Approved from the meeting debrief.
ApprovedTransaction probability· Arcadia Auctions50 → 70
The company Founder · Aug 30, 2026 · applied · Approved from the meeting debrief.
ApprovedBuyer score· Arcadia Auctions60 → 85
The company Founder · Aug 30, 2026 · applied · Approved from the meeting debrief.
ApprovedBuyer score· Solstice Equity Partners90 → 95
The company Founder · Aug 29, 2026 · applied · Approved on the cited public source.
RejectedBuyer tier· Harbour Inventory Systemstier_2 → tier_3
The company Founder · Aug 27, 2026 · not applied · Keep at Tier 2 for now; Harbour's product fit is unchanged and the founder wants one more attempt.
ApprovedBuyer score· Cardinal Automotive Group0 → 40
The company Founder · Aug 12, 2026 · applied · Approved from the meeting debrief.
ApprovedTransaction probability· Lakeshore Commerce45 → 55
The company Founder · Aug 8, 2026 · applied · Approved from the meeting debrief.
ApprovedBuyer score· Lakeshore Commerce10 → 65
The company Founder · Aug 8, 2026 · applied · Approved from the meeting debrief.
ApprovedBuyer score· Ridgeline Dealer Marketing5 → 30
The company Founder · Jul 29, 2026 · applied · Approved from the meeting debrief.
ModifiedBuyer score· Arcadia Auctions80 → 85
M&A Advisor · Jul 30, 2026 · applied · Direction agreed; 90 overstates it for a company that also runs an internal build.
ApprovedTransaction probability· Beacon Used Cars12 → 5
The company Founder · Jul 17, 2026 · applied · Approved from the meeting debrief.
RejectedBuyer tier· Beacon Used Carstier_3 → rejected
The company Founder · Jul 18, 2026 · not applied · Dormant, not rejected. Owner-operators come back.
ApprovedBuyer score· Pinnacle Vehicle Data5 → 35
The company Founder · Jul 14, 2026 · applied · Approved from the meeting debrief.
ApprovedBuyer score· Ironwood Capital Group10 → 30
The company Founder · Jul 12, 2026 · applied · Approved from the meeting debrief.
ApprovedBuyer score· Kestrel Dealer Systems5 → 40
The company Founder · Jul 7, 2026 · applied · Approved from the meeting debrief.
ApprovedBuyer score· Vantage Retail Cloud15 → 55
The company Founder · May 10, 2026 · applied · Approved from the meeting debrief.